I'm Really Not Faye

Chapter 68 Can I bet that I have a guardian spirit?

In the early morning of the next day, Lynch, who had gambled all night with the dragon inheritance in his mind, had a bright face despite the dark circles under his eyes.

The entire gambling market made the dragon inheritance spit out a lot of changes and predictions of the two basic dragon language rune.

However, the quantity is so large that Lynch cannot make delivery for the time being, and can only save it first.

At least his path to the mage, the ground bricks are thicker.

When Lin Qi just walked out of the secret alleyway, she happened to meet Wang Ruoling who was carrying a basin, toothpaste and towels, who was going to wash her face, and there was a delicate girl beside her.

“Why are you here?” Wang Ruoling asked in surprise.

Girl Enya also looked at this handsome man.

Isn’t the boys’ dormitory on the next floor?

This habit of rubbing on the girls floor is unhealthy.

Lynch hurriedly broke the topic, “I just thought about some gambling betting theories, and I didn’t pay attention to getting around here.”

Sure enough, the “gambling” hit Wang Ruoling’s death orifice and swept all her attention away.

“Then you tell me?”

Lynch immediately confided the betting ratio formula and quotation. Wang Ruoling, who is an “anti-gambling faction”, should indeed have some theoretical support.

In fact, the “Kelly formula” is a betting strategy that maximizes the long-term growth rate of principal in independent repeated betting where the expected net profit is positive.

Facing the strategy in Life, it also works.

Such as two expedition teams, the probability of successful return on the journey is 40% and 60%. Once successful, the resources they will explore on their return journey will depend on the resources invested at the time of departure, with additional feedback of 130% and 100% respectively.

How to arrange the resource input ratio of the two teams in this case?

Therefore, in the blackjack game last night, Lynch was able to calculate the “winning rate” based on the cards, and then combined with the “odds” given by the opponent to easily calculate the betting ratio.

After Wang Ruoling listened, she couldn’t help muttering to herself and repeating the formula.

“Bet ratio = (winning rate * net odds-losing rate) / odds.”

“Oh, once the “expectation” of winning rate * net odds is equal to or less than the losing rate, the result will be 0 or negative. I think it is not worth investing, but gamblers don’t know the truth.”

Lynch also nodded silently.

For example, throw a coin to guess the positive and negative game, each time you invest 1 yuan, 1 yuan will be confiscated if you guess wrong, and 1 yuan will be paid for the correct guess.

This looks like an absolutely fair game, winning rate * odds-losing rate = 0.5 * 1-0.5 = 0.

That’s right, an absolutely fair game has zero revenue expectations!

It’s not worth playing this game at all!

Enya, a young girl apprentice with a keen business sense, commented, “In fact, the casino is fair and the winning rate is 50%. But because of the dealer’s pumping, the gamblers’ expectations are completely negative.”

“It’s ridiculous that casinos with negative returns are eager for gamblers.”

Lin Qi nodded silently and agreed.

For the 10 hands that were constantly refreshed last night, he was only betting on positive returns, and just discarded the others.

In the end, the Dragon Inheritance was all “negative profit” gambling games, and he gave up.

Only then did Wang Ruoling react and introduced Lynch and Enya to each other, and Lynch realized that this was the buyer of his points.

“Then classmate Lynch, what do you think the casino relies on for making money?” Enya the girl suddenly asked.

Lynch was taken aback. Last night he seemed to use the “Kelly formula” to earn free knowledge passed down by the dragon.

But in fact, he relied on another formula.

“Didn’t you just say that because the casino takes a 5% off, the fair game turns into a negative profit, so the casino wins the gambler’s money, relying on the final turnover.”

The girl Enya’s expression was shocked, and the answer was exactly the same as what her father told her!

Somewhat counter-intuitive, but incredibly profound.

“Your keenness is really good, no wonder you are our best student in this class.” Enya praised.

Lynch was already far away by this time, but he added.

“No, these are what math told me.”

“According to Bernoulli’s Law of Large Numbers, under the condition that the experiment remains unchanged, if the experiment is repeated many times, the frequency of random events is similar to its probability, and chance contains a certain certainty.”

Saying that Lynch’s figure has disappeared at the intersection.

Therefore, the final money made by the dealer depends on the gambler’s total investment multiplied by 5% of the margin.

Means like the “minimum bet amount” are to increase the total bet amount.

Gamblers never know that the gambling game they think is simply comparing mathematicians like Dirichlet, Bernoulli, Gauss, Nash, and Kelly!

The casino doesn’t care who wins at all, anyway, it will eventually comply with the law of large numbers and send it back to them by pumping water.

I’m not afraid of you winning, I’m afraid you won’t bet!

Enya couldn’t help biting her lip, looking at her companion next to her, “Ruo Ling, your friend, you are a bit cool.”

“And do you know? The theory he just told me is the key basis for the spells of the prophecy. I have to talk to my aunt and tell her that our current Lynch is probably very talented for prophecy.”

When she said that, she took out the phone that her aunt quietly gave her, and silently entered a paragraph.

Wang Ruoling couldn’t help but raised her eyebrows slightly, she always felt a little familiar with these words.

———–

The first class “Summon of the Guardian Spirit” on the second day of school can be regarded as a big battle since the beginning of school.

In addition to the uniform start of all one-year apprentice masters, the academy sent large-scale teachers for this course, and the atmosphere seemed solemn and solemn.

When Lynch rushed to the classroom, the five wizards who served as the “spirit opening ceremony” were already there, looking at the Magical Robe style, there were no shortage of middle and high ring wizards.

They looked indifferent, and at the same time the invisible servants couldn’t help carrying ritual items towards the auditorium classroom.

Faced with this may be the only opportunity to come into contact, most of the apprentices below are in good time, ready to wait for a blockbuster, and leave a deep impression on these powerful wizards.

Suddenly a female mage lowered her head slightly, glanced at the phone in her cuff, her pupils were slightly opened, and then she glanced at the audience with kindness, and then remained silent.

“Why do you look depressed?”

Because of its size, the entire auditorium was crowded with no fewer than hundreds of people. Lynch managed to squeeze through the crowd to find his own roommates.

“Brother Lin, I haven’t congratulated you on the behavior of turning over the audience last night. You slapped Zhao Qi in the face severely. It is said that a group of them shouted while everyone was asleep in the middle of the night. Yes.” Chen Shikun hurriedly reported to Lin Qihui.

Lynch had no choice but to hold back the smile. In fact, he heard it last night, so no one will provoke him again, right?

In the face of this kind of thing, you can only get a punch and save a hundred punches!

“As for everyone’s depressed look, it was that an apprentice committed suicide last night. Everyone felt it was a pity.” Chen Shikun sighed.

Liu Kai on the side took the stubborn words, “Yes, especially for this’Guardian Spirit’ course. It is said that every apprentice of the mage who succeeds in enlightening spirits will receive great attention from the academy. Basically, those who are successful in enlightening spirits are destined to be sent. Central District.”

“So everyone is gearing up, but I’m afraid that I don’t have enough talent, and I’m under a lot of pressure, and I’m afraid of becoming the next suicide.”

Even Liu Kai, who was the most cheerful in the past, was like this. Lynch also realized that this class was invisibly another test, weighing heavily on everyone’s hearts.

The tall and thin Mo Yifei added, “Especially our dormitory has successfully summoned demons. If we haven’t had a spirit opening ceremony this time, I really can’t afford to be ashamed.”

Chen Shikun was immediately dissatisfied, “What are you talking about? Everyone is not sure, but Brother Lin must have done it.”

Lynch can only hey.

Feelings Chen Shikun had so much confidence in him at the time, and it seems that this little brother has confiscated it in vain.

Chen Shikun was immediately dissatisfied, “Brother Lin, the academy’s largest underground gambling market, Absolute Libra, has opened a lot of games. Many people in our dormitory have pressured their dormitory to awaken first, so everyone is holding their breath.”

“Oil lamp share?” Lynch was surprised.

Suddenly, several people nodded in embarrassment, “I heard that there are people who have suppressed the share of one month, and some very important dragon sensors. Anyway, they accept everything and have been operating in the academy for many years.”

Lynch pouted, isn’t that a gift of money.

“Is that about me?”

Chen Shikun’s eyes widened suddenly, “Brother Lin, how did you know? Two of them are quite popular. One is whether you can summon the guardian spirit first and lose five. The other is whether you can successfully summon the guardian spirit today. , And at least lose one.”

Lynch wondered, there are still odds for his smashing performance?

Look down on people so much?

Guo Sifei on the side was afraid that Lin Qi would underestimate the enemy, and explained, “Student Lin Qi, don’t be careless. The guardian spirit also looks at the ritual awakenings, like us who have no foundation, rely on the own soul. But those descendants of the mage family, you can say I prepared for this moment after I was born, and I don’t know how much I used to strengthen my soul!”

“We strugglers, temporarily succumb to this wave.” Guo Sifei also admitted.

“Brother Lin, if I suppress you, you can definitely do it. They just send me money.” Chen Shikun said righteously.

Lynch was a little embarrassed, and looked around to see if there were any strangers.

“This? Can you control yourself to win?”

Well, this time, he is indeed confident.

Because of the guardian spirit, he really has it.

After all, if the winning percentage in the Kelly formula is 100%, then the betting ratio is 100%.