My Age of Investment

   Chapter 1161 can be imitated but cannot be surpassed

   "How did you capture the pattern of crises?"

  Xia Jingxing looked at Spitznagel with interest. The appearance of this guy made him see a possibility to make up for the missing segment of Vision Capital's strategy.

  Spitznagel pointed to his head, "It's simple, calculate!

The "Barbell Strategy" mentioned by my mentor Taleb in the book "Antifragile" - 90% of the capital is low risk, 10% high risk, then your loss will not exceed 10%, but the gain is not capped of.

   Of course, his data list is very general and does not fit all financial transaction models.

  To really make money in a crisis event, you need a more sophisticated investment portfolio.

  Our company has 12 math doctors, who are specially invited to do math problems.

   We don’t have a ton of math PhDs, astrophysicists, statisticians, and computer scientists working on quantitative trading models like Simmons’ renaissance.

   We don’t need to consider so many market variables, we just need to calculate whether the short portfolio can cover the risk exposure of the long portfolio. "

  Abel laughed: "Don't you buy a bunch of put options and wait for a crisis event? Such as floods, hurricanes, wars, food production cuts, economic crises..."

  Spitznagel smiled, "We just act like fools, feel like fools, but not really fools.

  When the Empirical Fund was in operation until 2004, Mr. Taleb quit the company due to health reasons, so I closed the fund and went to Morgan Stanley's proprietary division to be the head of options trading for two years.

   More than a year ago, I started a new business and founded this global investment fund. The goal is to become the first investment institution in the industry to systematize tail risk strategies.

   The general black swan fund has a flaw, that is, when the stock market is good, it often performs poorly.

   And the tail risk strategy I want to create is not only to obtain high returns when the market falls sharply in the short term, but also to outperform the broader market by at least double in the bull market! "

   "This is easier said than done?"

Abel thinks Spitznagel is a bit whimsical. If it wasn't for his mentor's sake, and the guy's huge profits in the 9/11 incident, he would never agree to put money in this crazy the guy's.

   "Others can't do it, but that doesn't mean Global Investment Fund can't do it." Spitznagel said confidently.

  Abel smiled and stopped talking.

  Spitznagel's face gradually turned cold. He was questioned by Abel several times. No matter how good his temper was, he couldn't be so accustomed to him.

   For a while, the two stopped talking, and the atmosphere became a little awkward.

  Jiang Ping came out and said: "Mark, I believe in you, there is no way in this world, and there are more people who walk, there will be a way.

   There was no black swan fund before, and now there are many large investment institutions that have deployed such a special fund to defend against the risk of black swan events.

  What Global Investment is doing is very pioneering.

  Once successful, it will definitely lead the industry trend. "

   Hearing this, Spitznagel said with a slight expression: "We could have made more money from the financial turmoil caused by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, but because it is not a net short position, we have offset a lot of gains.

   This is also what we have been insisting on, being a long-term investor, not a short-term speculator. "

   Hearing the words, Jiang Ping and Abel couldn't help but look at Xia Jingxing, their eyes seemed to say: Boss, this guy seems to look down on our net shorts and says we are speculators.

  Xia Jingxing smiled, Envision Capital is a net short position, and it should be the largest net short position in the world, all tens of billions of dollars are short, and not a cent is long.

   It is not wrong to say that he is a speculator.

   However, Xia Jingxing also has a long-term trading strategy. After the financial turmoil blows, he will be bullish on US stocks across the board and win for at least 12 years.

What to do after   ?

  Xia Jingxing hopes that a group of fund managers such as Liu Hai, Jiang Ping, Li Yaozu, Ye Shuhui and Deng Fenghua can grow up as soon as possible.

  If they cannot continue the brilliance of Vision Capital after 2020, then Xia Jingxing can only change the trading strategy, shrink the size of the fund, or even transform Vision Capital into a family office.

   At the same time, he is also looking for some good external fund managers to manage the assets of the family office.

   This is commonly known as eggs cannot be put in one basket.

   But the egg baskets are all on one van.

  What should I do if the truck overturned?

  For example, even if Xia Jingxing spreads his funds to dozens of external hedge funds, after 2020, an event similar to the 2008 financial crisis will occur, and more than 90% of the world's assets will plummet.

   Global Investment can be seen as another truck because of its unusual path.

   Instead of putting dozens of baskets of eggs, you only need to put a basket of eggs in Global Investment.

  When this basket of eggs is delivered safely, it can offset the loss of dozens of other baskets of eggs.

   As far as Xia Jingxing knows, the tail risk trading strategy of Spitznagel in his previous life was really successful.

   In the ten-year bull market of US stocks, the Global Investment Fund outperformed the 7.4% return of the S&P 500 with a compound annual return of 12.3%.

  Although it still fell short of Spitznagel's "at least double the outperformance," it wasn't far behind.

   And this is the case when the U.S. stock market has been in a ten-year bull market, and the income generated by the outbreak of the black swan event has not been calculated.

  In 2020, due to the two "black swans" of the epidemic and the oil price crash, stocks, bonds, gold and other assets all plummeted, and global investment has achieved a 3600% return in one month.

   Earned over $3 billion with less than $100 million in put premiums.

   And this isn't the first time Spitznagel and Global Ventures have gotten their way.

Not counting the events of 9/11 and the 2008 financial crisis, Global Investments bought a large number of S&P 500 put options at less than $2 a contract in 2010. A month later, U.S. stocks crashed again due to the Greek debt problem. Pulling back, Global Investment sold all these put options at a price of $60 per share, easily earning more than 30 times the return.

  In 2015, A-shares suffered a second stock market crash due to the exchange rate reform. The Dow plummeted by nearly 4% on the same day, and Global Investments made an explosion of US$1 billion on the same day.

   Success after success has completely established the reputation of Spitznagel and Global Investments.

   Even Xia Jingxing couldn't help but admire.

   No matter whether the market is good or bad, this unusual black swan fund can make money.

   And ordinary black swan funds can only make money when they encounter black swan events that are rare for a few years, or even ten years.

   This is the biggest difference between global investment and ordinary black swan funds.

  Why is this possible?

   This is because this fund has turned a "short-term speculative business" into a "long-term investment business".

  Spitznagel and Global Investment Fund are playing a survival game between the "big fish" and the "little fish."

   On weekdays, investors all over the world will easily make a little money by selling short-term put options to the Global Investment Fund, that is, premium income.

  These little fish kept tearing off tiny shreds from Global Investment. Every day, Global Fund was bleeding slowly...

And when unprecedented crises such as 9/11 and the epidemic lead to a major market crash, Global Investment, the usually sleeping big fish, will be caught off guard and open its **** mouth to eat and wipe all the small fish lingering in the trap, earning Several times, dozens of times the profit lost on weekdays, and some retail investors will even lose their fortunes because of the greed for small money.

   This is also commonly known as three years without opening, opening for three years.

  Xia Jingxing also went short, but only occasionally.

   And Global Investment is shorting all the time.

   It's not that Spitznagel is a master of prophecy, who can predict major events that affect the financial market time and time again.

   But he led the team to make a transaction model, and persevered in sticking to it.

   Can the average person endure consecutive losses for several years? The kind that loses every day, every moment.

   So this guy is going to become a farmer, mainly to divert his attention. Otherwise, after staring at the market for a few years, the whole person will become bad, and then he may shake his investment strategy.

  Xia Jingxing said, "Mark, can you share your specific trading strategy?"

  Spitznagel did not refuse, but asked with a smile: "Are you sure you want to understand? Friendly reminder, this is a bomb, and most people can't play with it."

  Xia Jingxing glanced at Jiang Ping, the latter understood and said, "We don't plan to do it, we just want to understand and gain insight."

   "Okay, you come with me!"

  Spitznagel got up with a smile on his face and walked downstairs with Xia Jingxing and the three of them, seemingly not worried about the leakage of core business secrets.

   Because he firmly believes that it can be imitated but cannot be surpassed.

   (end of this chapter)