My Age of Investment

   Chapter 1174 The sun is thin on the west mountain

   After sending Xu Lei away, Xia Jingxing took a flight to the UK that night.

   Hong Kong Island cannot stay any longer for the time being, because there are too many people who come to beg for alms.

   In addition, he is a boy who doesn't know how to reject others. No matter how many things he has, he can't stand this kind of serial oppression in units of hundreds of millions and billions! Injury!

  The time on Hong Kong Island is 8 hours faster than that in London, the distance between the two places is nearly 10,000 kilometers, and the flight time is about 10 hours.

   So when Xia Jingxing arrived at London Heathrow Airport, it was also night time.

  Li Yaozu personally led a team to meet him at the airport, and took them to a high-end hotel in Canary Wharf to check in.

   Leaving all the chores to others, the two sat by the window of the hotel, overlooking the night view of the Thames downstairs, chatting while eating a hearty dinner.

   "The ban on short selling, aren't the British authorities going to lift it?"

  Xia Jingxing raised the red wine glass and touched it lightly with Li Yaozu.

  Li Yaozu took a sip of wine, then wiped his mouth with a napkin, and said with a smile: "There is definitely no hope within this year, and now the entire British people's livelihood is in a state of decline and has been severely hit by the financial crisis.

   The car came all the way just now, and you should have seen that there were no pedestrians on the street.

  Canary Wharf, where we are located, is the most prosperous business district in London.

   There are bars everywhere downstairs. On weekdays, the white-collar workers around them like to go to the bar for a few drinks after get off work.

   Now if you go around the bar, you will find that all business is bleak, and there are basically no people. "

  Xia Jingxing smiled, "If you don't get rid of it, you can't get rid of it. Anyway, you have a lot of pounds."

  Li Yaozu corrected: "To be exact, it's US dollars!"

Xia Jingxing burst out laughing, "Yes, I almost forgot, your team did a good job this time, if it weren't for the signing of a large number of foreign exchange option contracts, the plunge of the pound would have eroded our short-selling profits by seven or seven. Eighty-eight."

  Li Yaozu held up his gold-rimmed glasses and said quite humbly: "Such a low-level mistake will definitely not be made, the British Empire has long since declined, and the risk of currency devaluation cannot be avoided.

  Although the US economy is also facing a serious recession, after all, the hegemony is in hand, and the US dollar is still very strong. "

Xia Jingxing said with a smile: "Have you seen the financial headlines on Hong Kong Island two days ago? The Song family lost 14.7 billion Hong Kong dollars on the Australian dollar contract, and the stock price fell by 80% in two days. Even the Hong Kong Island Securities Regulatory Commission announced its involvement in the matter. .

  The three-generation Song family, the glory is probably coming to an end. "

   Li Yaozu sneered, "I saw the report, this thunder is indeed quite big.

  Song Zhijian's daughter, as the financial person in charge of the company, has to bear the main responsibility. Not only did she fail to do a good risk assessment, but when the crisis initially appeared, she did not stop the loss in time, and chose to carry it to the end.

   At the same time, there are also big problems with their information disclosure. Investors have been unaware that Huaxin Pacific is still investing in foreign exchange.

   Now that such a big thunder has exploded, investors will definitely not pay the bill. I think someone is going to file a lawsuit against the management headed by the Song family, and sue them for defrauding shareholders.

  In fact, since late July, there have been changes in the international currency market. The exchange rate of the Australian dollar against the US dollar has continued to fall, falling by more than 30% in three months.

   With such a big fluctuation, the Song family's reaction is really confusing.

In addition, the Australian dollar contract they signed with the investment bank is also quite criticized. In the best case, Huaxin Pacific will earn more than 50 million US dollars at most, but there is no upper limit on losses. ?

   I have briefly analyzed that it should be Citi, HSBC, Standard Chartered, Deutsche Bank and other foreign banks that jointly used the pricing advantage to make a round.

   The foreign exchange contracts signed by Huaxin Pacific and them are completely disproportionate to the risks and benefits.

   If you are really professional enough, you should not sign such an unequal contract even if you use an Australian dollar contract to hedge the currency risk of a mining project. "

  Xia Jingxing nodded lightly and said with a smile, "These foreign banks have been seriously injured this year and have been bleeding profusely. If they don't find a few bigwigs to make up for their losses, I'm afraid they won't be able to survive this Christmas.

   Well, let’s stop talking about them and talk about our GBPUSD contract. "

  Li Yaozu smiled and reported: "We and Watson Pacific are the opposite, they are bullish on the Australian dollar against the US dollar, and we are bearish on the pound against the US dollar.

   At the beginning of this year, according to the official exchange rate, 1 pound was worth 2 dollars.

   Yesterday, the GBP/USD exchange rate officially fell below 1.7 to 1.6589.

  Look at this, it will definitely fall next, I am afraid it will fall to the position of 1.5 and 1.4.

If the contract expires and we execute the foreign exchange option contract at the exchange rate of 1.4, we only need to spend 14 billion US dollars to buy 10 billion pounds at the market price, and then resell the 10 billion pounds to the counterparty and accept the 20 billion US dollars they paid for the contract That would net a net profit of $6 billion. "

  Xia Jingxing listened with a smile on his face. Soros did the same thing when he attacked the pound. He borrowed pounds, then suppressed the exchange rate of the pound, and finally converted it into dollars to make a little difference.

   However, they did not take the initiative to suppress the pound. It was the pound itself that collapsed due to the financial crisis. They just waited and waited.

   "I remember that in November last year, the exchange rate of GBP/USD seemed to reach 2.1?"

  Li Yaozu laughed: "Yes, the more accurate number is 2.111. In mid-July, the exchange rate was still at 2.002, and then it collapsed at the same time as the Australian dollar."

  Xia Jingxing took a sip of wine and said with joy: "It seems that the empire is really not good until the sun sets. The exchange rate has collapsed so badly, how long can you keep your money?"

   "In 1864, Yuanmingyuan only burned for a few years, and 1 pound at that time could be exchanged for 10 dollars.

   More than 140 years have passed, and this exchange rate has been falling all the way. Scholars in the UK call it a century of currency devaluation.

   During World War I, 1 pound was worth nearly 5 dollars.

   After World War II, the British Empire was quickly replaced by the United States. After the establishment of the Bretton Woods system, the exchange rate of the pound against the US dollar jumped directly from 4.1 to 2.8.

  I think in a few years time, the exchange rate will be one-to-one, and maybe it will be overtaken by the US dollar. "

  Xia Jingxing smiled and waved his hand, "It's not that mysterious. The family business that my ancestors have accumulated for hundreds of years should still be defeated for another few decades."

  Li Yaozu smiled lightly: "No matter what, the decline of the old powers cannot be stopped.

  Some Hong Kong Islanders still go here wholeheartedly, but if you watch more news, you won't be so mindless.

  The British people keep saying that they are welcome to the free world. I think it is just a job issue, and the locals don't welcome them.

  The unemployment rate is so serious, let them come in to grab jobs? "

  Xia Jingxing looked at Li Yaozu with a smile, and if he went on, he would become an old prophet!

   But these views are not difficult to analyze.

  As a qualified financial practitioner, you must learn to screen out investment opportunities from countless political, economic, social and other information around the world.

   Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet.

   And Li Yaozu is that duck.

   "By the way, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley disclosed their short positions, how did the British authorities react?"

  Li Yaozu said with a smile: "The Financial Supervisory Authority (FSA) will definitely not intervene on the surface to maintain a decent free market, but secretly, he has interviewed the British heads of the two investment banks several times.

   The meaning inside and outside the words is very simple, that is, everyone is the descendant of Angsa, almost got it, don't force me to be cruel.

   Really irritating, ban your two investment banks from doing business in the UK.

  The British principals of the two investment banks then approached me to complain, I hope I will convey their difficulties to you and be considerate of them. "

  Xia Jingxing smiled slightly, "Don't pay attention to them, if they really can't bear the pressure, they will never react like this.

  Besides, the two bosses, Blankfein and Mai Jinxiong, haven't spoken yet. What is the head of one of their regions? "

  Li Yaozu nodded lightly to show his understanding.

   "However, Xia Sheng, the US $700 billion bailout bill was finally passed after a lot of hard work, and the UK is also actively saving the market, so there shouldn't be much room for the stock market to fall.

   In addition, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and other European countries are also following up with some bailout policies from the United Kingdom and the United States.

  I see that Paulson Fund has already started to close its positions and retreat.

  I think, we can almost finish it when we see it. "

  Xia Jingxing was silent, thinking silently in his heart.

   After a while, he said slowly: "Then withdraw, and change to a brand new battlefield."

   (end of this chapter)