My Age of Investment

  Chapter 728 Own Way

  Xia Jingxing suppressed the strong fluctuating emotions in her heart and calmed herself down quickly.

   Then he asked tentatively: "CDS products are relatively niche, why do you want to invest in it?"

"Yes, compared with the popular financial products such as securities and futures, CDS is indeed a niche group, and it also needs to pass the review of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association to participate in the transaction. The higher transaction threshold directly affects retail investors and some small Institutions are isolated.

  But, because of this, there are not so many eyes staring at this product.

  Dylan, do you think the housing price increase in the United States has been normal in recent years? Even the part-time workers in my house have bought a few suites. Is there any reason for this?

  Hourly worker told me that she worked hard for two more years, and when the price of the house rose, she would sell the house to travel the world and realize her dream when she was young.

  I estimate that people all over the United States, whether rich or not, have all come to speculate.

  If this continues, the housing market will collapse sooner or later, the mortgage bond default rate will soar all the way, and the price of CDS is likely to usher in a big increase. "

  Xia Jingxing was silent, which was exactly the same as his judgment.

  However, this does not prove that the wind has been leaked, and it may be the conclusion drawn by others' own analysis.

  After all, this world will never lack smart people, but people who can put ideas into action.

   "It sounds very good, then don't you just raise a new fund to buy it?"

  Long sighed on the phone, "Hey! The risk of investing in CDS is not small now. If the prediction is wrong, the housing market does not collapse, or it collapses a few years later, it is really giving away money to the institution that sells CDS."

  Xia Jingxing did not answer, and continued to mutter to himself on the other end of the phone: "This possibility is quite high! Because in 2004, hedge funds looked down on the housing market and tried to go short.

The results of it? Housing prices have been rising steadily, all short positions have been blown up, and a large number of hedge funds have fallen. "

"Um."

  Xia Jingxing uttered a nasal tone, and then he didn't say anything. He was thinking about the hedge fund liquidation in 2004.

  To be a vacant market is not exclusive to Envision Capital, nor is it the first person to eat crabs. Some organizations that are not afraid of death have tried it two years ago.

  Hedge funds are “desperadoes” who lick their blood. They are looking for investment and speculation opportunities in the global financial market, and it is impossible to fail to pay attention to the housing market.

  As a result, a large number of vacant markets have died.

  It has only been two years since this incident, which is still fresh in the memory of many financial practitioners.

  This is also an important reason why many institutions look down on the housing market, but they have not dared to end.

  Xia Jingxing guessed that the man on the other end of the phone belonged to this category.

  Thinking of this, he finally relieved his heart. It should not be the leaking of the news, but the other party's own judgment of some market trends.

  But I am not very confident, so I want to seek some encouragement and listen to other people’s opinions.

   "Darren, there has been a lot of bubbles in the U.S. housing market, that’s for sure.

  What I am not sure or worried about now is that once a crisis occurs, will the federal government end up intervening in the housing market? "

  Xia Jingxing asked: "How to say?"

  "For example, legislation prohibits private land of residents from entering the real estate market, and developers implement a pre-sale certificate system, and it is strictly forbidden to lower the opening price at will;

   Called on Mexican migrant workers who smuggled into the city to buy a house, and they would get a green card if they bought a house;

  Further reduce the down payment ratio, reduce inventory nationwide, and encourage further leverage. If residents can't increase it, companies are encouraged to increase it.

  The down payment is already zero?

  Then implement the tax deduction for buying a house, the mortgage deducting a tax, and the enterprise buying a house deducting the income tax and so on.

  You can also directly issue mortgage subsidies to defaulters. Anyway, you can’t spend a lot of money. If the federal government has no money, it will further expand the deficit..."

  Xia Jingxing laughed loudly, it was too absurd.

  At the same time he felt familiar.

  It suddenly occurred to me, isn’t this the method used by rabbits in 2015?

  The nationwide housing price surge from 2015 to 2016 is still fresh in his memory and he hopes that the house will sigh!

  "If one day I meet the leader of Bush Jr., I will definitely recommend you to him as Treasury Secretary."

   "Hahaha, Darren, I was joking with you. I speculate that there is a possibility that the federal government will interfere in the housing market, but it is unlikely.

  In addition, Bush Jr. sent 6,000 National Guards to the US-Mexico border only a few months ago to prevent more illegal immigrants from infiltrating. "

Xia Jingxing replied: "Yes, no one can predict the next direction of the housing market.

  Why do you suddenly remember to ask me this? I have been trading stocks, and I rarely touch other financial products. "

   "Haha, both of us are Chinese, so we naturally need to help each other! Last year you went back to China, so I didn’t have any contact with you. I hope you don’t be surprised!"

  Speaking of this, the other party suddenly switched to Chinese.

  Ouch, let me go!

  Xia Jingxing patted his thigh. He finally knew who was on the other end of the phone. Li Lu, Charlie Munger’s disciple, also had a hedge fund company called Himalaya Capital.

  He got to know Li Lu when he followed Gates to visit Buffett. He had a normal friendship and was busy at work, so he didn't have much contact with each other.

  He did not expect that Li Lu would actually call him.

  Thinking about it carefully, it doesn’t feel strange.

  Wall Street, like Silicon Valley and Hollywood, also has a “transparent ceiling”.

  There are many Chinese working on Wall Street, but not many Chinese bosses who have their own hedge funds.

  The size of the hedge fund of Vision Capital is inconspicuous in the United States, but it is one of the best among American Chinese.

  Li Lu's hedge fund is not much different from Envision Capital. If you don't talk to him, you can't find other Chinese to talk to.

   After trying to understand this, Xia Jingxing suddenly thought, is this a "pit" Li Lu?

  People brought the CDS product to exchange some opinions with him, but he concealed some facts, which was not magnanimous enough.

  But he told Li Lu everything, especially that he was going to short the US housing market with 3 billion US dollars. Will the other party also go short-selling?

  This can easily disrupt his deployment.

  Thinking about it, Xia Jingxing felt that it could only be a villain, so I won’t disclose it for the time being.

  No way, Shanghai is ruthless, and there is nothing wrong with being careful.

   "I think you can talk to Mr. Charlie Munger and tell him all your thoughts.

  He has been in the financial industry for decades, and his knowledge is far better than ours. "

  Li Lu sighed, “Hey, I have to have dinner with him every Tuesday, because he is the largest LP in Himalayan capital and has taught me a lot of things, so I respect him very much.

  I have communicated with him a while ago, and he does not recommend going to the vacancy market.

  Because the old man, like Buffett, never agrees to go short.

  The original words of the old man said: the real estate market collapses, and the government must eventually pay the bill. The money made by short CDS is essentially taxpayer's money.

  Listening to his words, my original idea of ​​entering the CDS market on a large scale has faded a lot. "

  Xia Jingxing smiled, Buffett also said the same thing: Remember, never short your country!

  He very much agrees with Buffett’s remarks, but his home country is China, short the United States, he does not have any psychological baggage.

  And Buffett also said that instead of buying technology stocks, he later made tens of billions of dollars by buying Apple stocks.

  No one can escape the true incense law!

  I really believe in the words of these bad old men, I am destined to only work part-time in my life.

   "Brother Li, let me send you a word."

  Li Lu was silent for a few seconds on the other end of the phone, and said in a low voice, "Okay."

   "Knowledged, interrogated, deliberate, discerning, and practised, "The Doctrine of the Mean" gives us the direction to maintain independent thinking."

  After listening, Li Lu was silent for half a minute, "You mean I should stick to my opinion?"

   "I can say that this is not good, it does not constitute any investment advice, thank you for your cooperation! Hahaha~"

  Xia Jingxing smiled and changed the topic. He still gave Li Lu a certain reminder, but if the other party was at ease as Charlie Munger's heir to his life, he would definitely not dare to take the risk to disobey the teacher.

  In fact, this road is also good. An Anxin will take over the old man’s family fund, and in the future, he can walk the rivers and lakes under the name of the old man.

   But if you want to become a generation investment emperor, you must find your own way.

   "Okay, thank you Darren, you are always welcome to Omaha, I invite you to drink."

  Xia Jingxing could feel the sincere invitation from the other party, smiled and replied: "Okay, come if you have a chance."

  ……

  PS: Recommend a book, "The Tribulation of the Ten Thousand Tribes: Difficulties", the author dances the pencil, and is also the chief operating officer of this book. The tribe of the Ten Thousand Tribes is the same as the humanities. Interested book friends can check it out.

  (End of this chapter)