Rebirth of the Tech Madman

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Without thinking about it, you can guess that "Dow Jones Industrial Average: 36,000 Points: A New Strategy for Profiting in the Future Bull Market", such a bull market prediction book with extremely sensational views, has received a lot of rigorous attitudes. Criticism from professionals.

For example, American economist and "New York Times" columnist Paul Krugman thinks that James Glassman and Kevin Hassett, two authors, made very stupid basic arithmetic errors.

In response, James Glassman and Kevin Hassett made a high-profile bet with their critics, that is, if their predictions are wrong, then they will donate to any designated public welfare organization. Thousands of dollars.

This is an era of blogging. Public figures not only are not afraid of controversy, but also like to take the opportunity to recruit believers.

Ever since, the book is so hot that it can only be described as "a mess", so that the two authors, James Glassman and Kevin Hassett, must be left behind in history. One stroke.

The reason why the general public is so enthusiastic about "Dow Jones Industrial Average: 36,000 Points: How to Profit in the Future Bull Market" is because it appeared at the right time, right place and fortune.

First of all, it must be admitted that neither James Glassman nor Kevin Hassett is a general, with the most convincing foundation.

Second, and more importantly, the current bull market driven by technology stocks has too many grounds for inevitable prosperity.

Think about it, compared to the original time and space, Tang Huan gave it. In the Internet wave where the concept of com is mostly hyped, how many "real facts" have been added, just the three pure Internet companies, AOL, Yahoo, and Amazon, have always correctly stepped on the drumbeat of the times.

At the same time, in today's world where the globalization situation is very obvious, the United States, as the only super hegemon, naturally has to draw blood from various places to support its own glory.

In addition to these macro factors, the general public instinctively yearns for a bull market.

You know, the American people's personal pension is mainly managed by themselves, so the bad rule of "you don't manage money, you don't care about your money" has been regarded as a holy book by countless people.

At this stage, almost all asset allocation consultants are actively promoting the concept of "balanced allocation" composed of 60% stocks and 40% bonds to the "grandfathers". This serves as a panacea for everyone's financial problems.

According to the New York University Stern School of Business and other reliable sources, data tracked since the 1920s, this concept of "balanced allocation" is exhaustive, that is, it can beat the inflation rate while at the same time. On average, an extra 5.3% of income is earned each year.

With the concept of "balanced allocation" based on "modern portfolio theory", returns can only come from three channels: bond income, stock dividends, and stock price growth.

The first two of them are deeply influenced by the control methods of the US Federal Reserve, such as raising interest rates and reducing interest rates, and various dazzling and unpredictable game rules on Wall Street. Only "stock price growth" can be considered free from human intervention. The "objective phenomenon".

Under such circumstances, it is not difficult to imagine the enthusiasm and obsession of the bull market among the broadest groups of ordinary people.

James Glassman and Kevin Hassett’s "Dow Jones Industrial Average: 36,000 Points: A New Strategy to Profit in the Future Bull Market", vowed to believe that the value of the stock market at this stage is still underestimated. In the next three to four years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average can reach 36,000 points, which is what everyone’s mind is.

Humans are so smart, but the irony is that they always subconsciously choose to believe what they are willing to believe.

"Dow Jones Industrial Average: 36,000 Points: How to Make a New Strategy for Profit in the Future Bull Market" is such a wonderful work created under the background of a special era that everyone is enthusiastically sought after and felt incredible in later years. .

As a "comer", Tang Huan is definitely not such a fool. However, he is not overly superstitious about his existing "experience."

It is extremely dangerous to copy the original conclusions mechanically.

In the case of Zheru Software Company, it is an increasing variable out of thin air, and countless observers are analyzing that one of the constituent stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average was repeatedly slammed by the United States of America v. Zheru Software Company’s monopoly case, but Why is it still so chic? In the end, the results unanimously tended to be the same, that is, Zheru Software Company has "real material", which largely offset the hype concept. com bubble.

When abstracting the real world into a "system" for analysis, how to deal with the "variables" that produce the butterfly effect is an absolute test of wisdom.

Tang Huan didn't dare to be 100% sure of the current situation. The com bubble will follow its historical trajectory and will inevitably burst in March next year.

The richest man can only collect as much key information as possible from his own global intelligence channels to derive it repeatedly.

For example, international oil and natural gas prices have indeed begun to rise after years of decadence, so that they have become the justified basis for Enron to manipulate California electricity prices.

For another example, companies that continue to increase IT budgets for the "millennium bug" are complaining. It is estimated that after passing this level safely, they will greatly reduce their enthusiasm for IT investment.

In addition, in the current Internet wave, many hardware suppliers are aggressively selling a large number of products to customers on credit in order to gain market share, forming a considerable amount of accounts receivable. Lucent is a typical representative.

To some extent, today's brilliance is overdrawing tomorrow's needs.

This beautiful era in the economic development process of the United States has lasted for seven or eight years, and it is time to start the cycle of profit and loss in the next month.

Just as one step away from a stock market with the same serious bubble a decade ago, one cannot be arrogant and obsessed with finding the highest point. After all, there are too many smart people in this field, and no one is willing to be a "receiver".

The richest man, who turned away all unnecessary entertainment, was "retreating and practicing". Jobs called and yelled angrily, "Tang, I knew that I would go to the hospital with you to do a **** health check, no Good thing!"

Tang Huan stretched his waist and asked casually, "Is your neural reflex arc too long? My final complete physical examination report has been sent for a long time, and it should be the same on your side. But how do I listen? The tone of your breath just now seems to have just read your final complete physical examination report."

"If it weren't for being urged by the hospital several times, I would have forgotten this medical report." Jobs said grimly: "Do you know what the above conclusion is? Suspect my pancreas tumor!"

Tang Huan faintly moved, "You won't complain. If I had the ability to'curse', I would have sent in the current Governor of California, Gray Davis."

"Furthermore, I'm also counting on you to lead the revival of Apple Computer, so that good financial resources are rolling in; eating and supporting the ground will hurt you."

"Okay, Steve, you are also the husband of your wife and the father of your children. Be responsible for yourself!"

After dismissing Steve Jobs, who had a weird way of judging causality, the richest man continued to "retreat and practice". He didn't expect that a few days later, he would have another moth.

Jobs’ wife, Lauren Powell, called and hurriedly mentioned that Jobs’ reaction made him feel confused, even scared.

It turned out that when he learned that he found a "shadow" on his pancreas during the physical health check, although Jobs was somewhat procrastinated at first, he still followed the doctor's advice and went to the hospital for further review and diagnosis.

But when the doctor suggested that before the tumor spread to a large area, after the surgical removal, Jobs' behavior gradually became "out of the ordinary".

First, Jobs contacted some friends in his circle.

For example, he phoned a friend he met when he went to India for a retreat more than 20 years ago, Larry Brillant.

This person is an epidemiologist who participated in the World Health Organization's efforts to eradicate smallpox in India.

Jobs said straight to the door, "Do you still believe in God?"

Larry Brillant gave an affirmative answer.

After confirming this consensus, the two began to think about that year when they discussed the Indian master Nim Karol Baba when they went to India for retreat, and they had taught them several paths to God.

After Larry Brillant began to cloud the mountains, he asked Jobs what was wrong.

Jobs then replied: "I have cancer."

Lauren Powell reflected in annoyance that he should have thought that Jobs was going to take the path of extraordinary treatment at this time.

Jobs also contacted Intel’s former CEO Andy Grove, who came to Jobs’s house specially for two hours and enthusiastically exchanged his anti-cancer experience.

After consulting this big circle, Jobs made a decision that surprised his family, that is, rejected the doctor's recommendation for surgery and turned to find other feasible methods. In fact, to put it bluntly, on the basis of a strict vegetarian diet, a lot of fresh carrots and fruit juices are consumed.

Tang Huan, who has been thinking about how to arrange an orderly arrangement from the current bull market when he sees it, didn’t respond at first after listening to this. It took a while before he realized that Jobs had committed another crime. Old thoughts.

Just as many big figures in China believe in superstitious masters and celebrities who admire the Dragon King, there are many masters on the American side who are deeply influenced by mysterious and mysterious things.

Steve Jobs ran to India in his twenties and almost died of diarrhea. The purpose was to find a spiritual mentor, to realize what to seek enlightenment through ascetic experience, sensory separation, and return to the original. Achieve inner peace.

These seemingly incredible behaviors were still quite marketable in the 1970s when the counterculture represented by hippies prevailed.

The richest man suddenly became annoyed. He had to work hard to get Jobs to do a few more years, but why did this guy go to his own death?

After forcibly calming his emotions, Tang Huan asked gently: "Lauren, what is your family's attitude toward this matter?"

Lauren Powell replied helplessly, "Of course it is to listen to the doctor's advice, operate as soon as possible, take advantage of the early discovery, and cure! But if Steve chooses, it may be delayed."

"Tang, now, Steve can't listen to our words at all. He can only hope that you can exert an influence on him."

The richest man patted the small mountain of documents on the desk, and slowly said to the microphone: "In this way, please bring the doctor over, and everyone will have a meeting with Steve and talk about it."

As a result, Jobs once again let everyone see his unpredictable strange **** temper, and roared in public: "Which method of treatment is taken is my freedom!"

Tang Huan frowned and said, "Steve~www.wuxiaspot.com~ This is just a small surgical operation, and it's a one-time operation. How did you do it, cut the tumor, as if you had cut your faith?"

"Tang, you are too right, this is cutting my beliefs." Jobs said with a nose not a nose, a face not a face: "Tang, I am willing to listen to your advice on official business; but this is my personal business. , Please don't interfere!"

The richest man kept his patience and persuaded with all his heart: "Your health is not entirely a private matter. It is about your ability to lead Apple Computer on the road to revival. What's more, I am very optimistic about the future of Apple Computer. The level of expectation is even more than that of Fangyuan."

Jobs insisted unmovedly: "My faith is gone, and Apple has lost its creativity, so how can it be brilliant?"

In the midst of the dispute, the assistant hurriedly handed over an exclusive mobile phone. After Tang Huan answered briefly, his face changed drastically.

Putting away the phone, the richest man stared at Jobs and said impatiently: "Give you two choices, cut your beliefs; or get ready for the second time from the company you created, and get out!"

...

This winter in Yanjing was exceptionally cold!

After the Silicon Valley One landed, Tang Huan quickly got into the car that his cousin Han Sining came to greet, and went straight to the 301 Hospital.

The 92-year-old grandfather Han Zhiliang is critically ill; the uncle Han An-yong, who is a provincial and ministerial chief in the southwest, is already standing by the hospital bed.

Seeing Tang Huan's arrival, Han Zhiliang's eyes lit up, and he said in a vague manner: "Boss, remember, let you come back when you come back, let you come down when you come down, read more history, often introspect; Tang, Grandpa can't give you advice on what to do. I just want to remind you and do it for yourself!"